references
Worldwide trends
The homogenization of the banking sector in Europe is an undeniable trend on which everybody agrees; and although the trends will depend on each country’s phase of development, following the Global Stress Test by the ECB, the transparency and comparability of the European financial entities have increased, which will allow for an understanding of the industry’s global status. In the rest of the world, the different trends we can currently observe between Europe, Asia, North America, Japan, Africa or Brazil could disappear and be easily assimilated in the future by one single common trend, as is characteristic of an increasingly global world. Carles Ventura explains that the Euro Zone is still under an extremely lax policy by the ECB, while the USA and the United Kingdom are already contemplating a gradual normalization of their monetary policies. Another trend
guiding this industry in Europe is the drastic reduction of the number of entities; Joaquín Deu affirms that even Germany, which still has numerous regional and local savings banks, will tend in future towards a reduction in their number. Experts are of the opinion that emerging economies must be seen as an opportunity. Xavier Queralt and Tomás Muniesa believe that in a scenario of global competition, the good shape of the Asian economy will have a positive impact on the European economies. “If the Asian companies land on the developed countries with power and capital, financial entities will come and settle down as result, taking up a substantial share of the banking sector in these countries,” says Javier Carrasco. Carles Ventura assesses China’s impact in this regard, as he thinks that if China follows a model of sustainable growth, it will
contribute to reduce the economic and financial imbalances of the country and, by extension, of the world. However, an abrupt adjustment of the economy in this country could have negative consequences for the rest of the planet, because China is the world’s second largest economy and represents 15% of the world’s GDP. “If China’s deceleration rate came down to an inter-annual 4%, the global growth could halve. The routes of infection of the rest of the world would be that of commerce and that derived from the poor behaviour of the international financial assets.
The European Banking Union
Although most experts praise the benefits of this Union in relation to its possible inconveniences, they also issue warnings with regard to certain deficits or problems the Union could raise. Among the advantages, they mention the Single Resolution Mechanism, the Single Supervisory Mechanism or the harmonisation of the Deposit Guarantee Fund. Javier Carrasco defends the need of a Banking Union governed by common policies and access to a Central European Bank in equal terms for all member states, while also deploring the slowness of decisions being taken within the Union, because “the slower we move, the more opportunities we are giving to competitors from other continents.” Carles Ventura also sees that a single resolution mechanism will also reduce the negative feedback between the banking risk and the sovereign risk and the differences in borrowing costs existing in the different EU countries. However, he also warns us that the transition process to the new context may, on a short-term basis, generate uncertainty in the stock markets and in lending, as well as more
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